Eurovision In-Depth: Studying the semi-final allocation draws for Lisbon - Semi-Final 1

Welcome to the first Eurovision In-Depth article! A few times a month, I will be taking an in-depth look into many things linked to the Eurovision including how it has changed since it began 63 years ago and how politics have played a major part in the contest. Today, I'm looking at which countries are most likely to qualify from this year's semi-final in Lisbon based on voting patterns, diaspora, luck of the draw and other factors that could come into play.

The allocation draw for the first semi-final. The countries on the left-hand side were drawn to perform in the first half and the countries on the right-hand side were drawn to perform in the second half.

When I first looked at this semi-final draw, two things stood out to me - Armenia and Azerbaijan have been drawn in the same semi-final and Greece and Cyprus have also both been drawn in the same semi-final. For sure this means that Armenia and Azerbaijan have both lost 24 points in the semi-final and Greece and Cyprus have a high chance of getting at least 24 points in the semi-final with them, most likely, both exchanging their top marks. But, as we look further into the semi-final, what else stands out? Before we continue, it's important to note that Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom were the three countries out of the automatic qualifiers that were drawn to vote in this semi-final.

For starters, Ireland and Lithuania have been drawn in the same semi-final, which must make Lithuania very happy! Since 2004, Ireland have always awarded points to Lithuania in the semi-final with them awarding 12 points five of those times (two of which were from televoting alone in 2016 and 2017). They have also been very friendly in the final with Ireland awarding Lithuania points every time they have made the final too - three of which have been twelve points (in 2006, 2007 and from the televoting in 2016). Lithuania however, are not so friendly to Ireland with them only giving them points in the semi-final seven out of a possible nine times, with the maximum amount of points awarded being 12 points in 2017 (4 points from televoting, 8 points from the jury). It's a similar story in the final too, with Lithuania only giving Ireland points on one out of a possible seven occasions, which was in 2006 when they awarded Ireland's Brian Kennedy four points. From this observation, I think we can assume that Ireland are most likely to give Lithuania a good chunk of points, most likely, at least 12 points, with Lithuania less likely to give many points to Ireland in return. Also, with Ireland, it is important to remember that Ryan O'Shaughnessy's uncle, Gary O'Shaughnessy, represented Ireland in Copenhagen in 2001, finishing in 21st place with only 6 points, meaning Ireland were relegated and were unable to take part in the 2002 contest in Tallinn. Could this be a bad omen for Ryan?

My next observation in this semi-final draw is that Iceland has been drawn with only one other Nordic country - Finland. Iceland again, have been very unlucky with their semi-final draw and this could mean a fourth non-qualification in a row for Iceland. The last time Iceland qualified was in 2014, when it received points from thirteen out of a possible nineteen countries in the semi-final. Out of the thirteen countries that voted for Iceland, only four of those countries can vote for Iceland this year in the semi-final stages of Eurovision - Belgium, Estonia, Portugal and Spain. Add on a few more points from Finland, and possibly a few more from the United Kingdom, 2018 is looking like another bad year for Iceland. I think Iceland need a very strong song to even have a contention to qualify this year.

Out of all the countries in this semi-final, ten of the countries qualified for last year's final. Could exactly the same countries qualify this year. I highly doubt it. Now, for the next section of this post, I'm going to look at the chances that last year's qualifiers have to qualify again this year.

I think I can safely say Azerbaijan have very high chances of qualifying for the final again this year, as they've never failed to make a final since they made their debut in 2008. The only issue that Azerbaijan have is their last four entries have not been as successful as their first six entries. Since 2014, Azerbaijan haven't finished in the top 10, and in 2014, 2015 and 2017, they only just scraped through to the final finishing in 9th, 10th and 8th place respectively. However, I believe Aisel has a very good voice and she could help Azerbaijan reach the final for at least another year.

Belgium and Bulgaria are another two countries I'd say are safe for sure. Both countries have had really strong results in the last few years and I think this could continue into this year's contest too. Another thing that gives me reassurance for Belgium to qualify is the fact that they are sending SENNEK (Laura Groeseneken) who is, of course, a really strong singer. Bulgaria have also hyped up the competition with a unique internal selection as they've invited music experts and Eurovision fans to help select their entry. Looking at the panel of jurors that Bulgaria have put together for their internal selection, I think it's safe to say that Bulgaria will send yet another really strong song to this year's Eurovision, so I don't think there's any doubt in them qualifying again.

Armenia, Cyprus, Greece and Israel are another four countries I would say are going to qualify, but for all four countries I do have some issues in saying there is no doubt they will qualify. Armenia does have a really strong national final, but I am concerned that Kamil has a strong chance in winning the selection which I don't think would go down well with the Eurovision juries, despite being a fan favourite. Cyprus always impresses in Eurovision, but they haven't had the steadiest time in the contest since 2005. With six failed attempts to qualify for the final and their best attempt since 2005 being 16th place in 2012, they could be in danger from failing to qualify again. I think it's safe to say that Eleni is going to be one of the stronger singers in this year's contest, but I'm interested to hear how good the song is. Greece is usually a country I'm hyped about, but for some reason, Greece's national final format is really not giving me as much enthusiasm as I usually have about the Greek entry. Greece also haven't made the top five since Kalomira's third place finish back in 2008, and they haven't even been in the top 10 for four years. Greece could be taking a huge risk this year with only three songs in their national final - the same amount of songs that was in their national final in 2017, with the selected song "This Is Love" only finishing in 10th place in the semi-final. Finally, Israel, just like Cyprus and Greece, have had a bumpy ride in Eurovision since 2000 with only three top ten finishes since the start of the new millennium - Shiri Maimon in 2005, Bo'az Ma'uda in 2008 and Nadav Guedj in 2015. Despite this, Israel had a really good semi-final in 2017, finishing in 3rd place with 207 points, despite only finishing in 23rd place in the final with a measly 39 points. Hopefully, Israel will have another really strong semi-final result this year too.

It's also interesting to note that only two of the former Yugoslavian countries have been drawn in this semi-final - Croatia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, with Slovenia, Montenegro and Serbia being drawn for the second semi-final and Bosnia & Herzegovina sitting the contest out for the second year in a row. However, it is important to realise that Albania and F.Y.R. Macedonia are neighbours, so they will probably be exchanging some points. As well as this, Croatia had a really good year in 2017, finishing in 13th place, so I'd expect Croatia is going to qualify again this year.

To be honest, I'm a little worried for Austria and Belarus this year, neither of which I was worried about last year. To put it politely, I think Austria have chosen their least talented artist since Trackshittaz in 2012. Cesar Sampson isn't an awful singer, but he's not used to singing much content alone, as he's done most of his musical work either in a group or as a backing singer. Another reason I'm worried for Austria is the fact that they scored no points from the televotes in last year's final - all their 93 points came from the juries alone and to do well in Eurovision, you need support from both the televotes and juries and I believe this year could be very similar to last year for Austria, the juries will love Cesar, but the public won't. Compared to last year, Belarus has a poor national final line-up, with Alekseev the only act really standing out a possible contender for Belarus in Lisbon, however, with the winner of Belarus' national final being decided by both a televote and a jury, I don't see Alekseev winning EuroFest and therefore, Belarus has very little chance in qualifying for the Eurovision final.

Finland, compared to previous years, I think has a really strong chance in qualifying. Saara is a talented young lady, and with the United Kingdom also voting in semi-final one, I would be shocked if the UK doesn't give her near to the full twenty-four points available after her second-place finish in the UK's X Factor. It'll be interesting to seeing the three songs that Saara will have in her national final on 3rd March.

I also expect the Czech Republic to do rather well this year, just based on the song alone. Mikolas has a very good voice and as long as the song doesn't lose its pop vibe after the clean version is released this could do very well! The public, I believe, will take to this song really well, and with the amount of younger people on the juries, including radio DJs, this song could really do well! I hope the Czech Republic qualify this year, and that's just from a personal point of view too.

I don't really have much to say about the remaining three countries and I think they will just get lost in the semi-final like previous years. Albania doesn't have the strongest of songs again, and if Lindita couldn't qualify last year, I don't see Eugent doing it this year.

For Estonia and Switzerland, I think they've just drawn the wrong semi-finals and I don't think any of their national final entries will stand out in Eurovision - "La Forza" is Estonia's best chance for qualifying and "Stones" is Switzerland's best chance for qualifying but otherwise I think it's going to be another non-qualification for these two countries, sadly.

So, now I've weighed up all the positives and negatives for all nineteen countries, these are my picks for the ten qualifiers from semi-final 1:

1. Armenia - Artist & Song: TBD 25 February 2018

2. Azerbaijan - Artist: Aisel / Song: TBD March 2018

3. Belgium - Artist: SENNEK / Song: TBD March 2018

4. Bulgaria - Artist & Song: TBD 12 March 2018

5. Croatia - Artist: TBD February 2018 / Song: TBD March 2018

6. Cyprus - Artist: Eleni Foureira / Song: "Fuego"

7. Czech Republic - Artist: Mikolas Josef / Song: "Lie To Me"

8. Finland - Artist: Saara Aalto / Song: TBD 3 March 2018

9. Greece - Artist & Song: TBD 22 February 2018

10. Israel -Artist: TBD February 2018 / Song: TBD March 2018

It was very hard to choose who I think would qualify between Israel and Lithuania, but in the end, after looking at last year's results, I decided it would be more likely that Israel will qualify, compared to Lithuania, despite Lithuania most likely securing between twelve and twenty-four points from Ireland.

Do you agree with my predictions on the first semi-final? Comment your thoughts below! I will be back with the second edition of "Eurovision In-Depth" next weekend when I look at the allocation draw for the second semi-final for the contest in Lisbon!